Obesity Is Associated with an Impaired Baseline Repertoire of Anti-Influenza Virus Antibodies.

Obesity is a risk factor for severe disease and mortality for both influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. While previous studies show that individuals with obesity generate antibody responses following influenza vaccination, infection rates within the obese group were twice as high as those in the healthy-weight group. The repertoire of antibodies raised against influenza viruses following previous vaccinations and/or natural exposures is referred to here as baseline immune history (BIH). To investigate the hypothesis that obesity impacts immune memory to infections and vaccines, we profiled the BIH of obese and healthy-weight adults vaccinated with the 2010-2011 seasonal influenza vaccine in response to conformational and linear antigens. Despite the extensive heterogeneity of the BIH profiles in both groups, there were striking differences between obese and healthy subjects, especially with regard to A/H1N1 strains and the 2009 pandemic virus (Cal09). Individuals with obesity had lower IgG and IgA magnitude and breadth for a panel of A/H1N1 whole viruses and hemagglutinin proteins from 1933 to 2009 but increased IgG magnitude and breadth for linear peptides from the Cal09 H1 and N1 proteins. Age was also associated with A/H1N1 BIH, with young individuals with obesity being more likely to have reduced A/H1N1 BIH. We found that individuals with low IgG BIH had significantly lower neutralizing antibody titers than individuals with high IgG BIH. Taken together, our findings suggest that increased susceptibility of obese participants to influenza infection may be mediated in part by obesity-associated differences in the memory B-cell repertoire, which cannot be ameliorated by current seasonal vaccination regimens. Overall, these data have vital implications for the next generation of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. IMPORTANCE Obesity is associated with increased morbidity and mortality from influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infection. While vaccination is the most effective strategy for preventing influenza virus infection, our previous studies showed that influenza vaccines fail to provide optimal protection in obese individuals despite reaching canonical correlates of protection. Here, we show that obesity may impair immune history in humans and cannot be overcome by seasonal vaccination, especially in younger individuals with decreased lifetime exposure to infections and seasonal vaccines. Low baseline immune history is associated with decreased protective antibody responses. Obesity potentially handicaps overall responses to vaccination, biasing it toward responses to linear epitopes, which may reduce protective capacity. Taken together, our data suggest that young obese individuals are at an increased risk of reduced protection by vaccination, likely due to altered immune history biased toward nonprotective antibody responses. Given the worldwide obesity epidemic coupled with seasonal respiratory virus infections and the inevitable next pandemic, it is imperative that we understand and improve vaccine efficacy in this high-risk population. The design, development, and usage of vaccines for and in obese individuals may need critical evaluation, and immune history should be considered an alternate correlate of protection in future vaccine clinical trials.

The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.

Environmental pathogen surveillance is a sensitive tool that can detect early-stage outbreaks, and it is being used to track poliovirus and other pathogens. However, interpretation of longitudinal environmental surveillance signals is difficult because the relationship between infection incidence and viral load in wastewater depends on time-varying shedding intensity. We developed a mathematical model of time-varying poliovirus shedding intensity consistent with expert opinion across a range of immunization states. Incorporating this shedding model into an infectious disease transmission model, we analysed quantitative, polymerase chain reaction data from seven sites during the 2013 Israeli poliovirus outbreak. Compared to a constant shedding model, our time-varying shedding model estimated a slower peak (four weeks later), with more of the population reached by a vaccination campaign before infection and a lower cumulative incidence. We also estimated the population shed virus for an average of 29 days (95% CI 28-31), longer than expert opinion had suggested for a population that was purported to have received three or more inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) doses. One explanation is that IPV may not substantially affect shedding duration. Using realistic models of time-varying shedding coupled with longitudinal environmental surveillance may improve our understanding of outbreak dynamics of poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, or other pathogens.

Inferring Numbers of Wild Poliovirus Excretors Using Quantitative Environmental Surveillance.

Response to and monitoring of viral outbreaks can be efficiently focused when rapid, quantitative, kinetic information provides the location and the number of infected individuals. Environmental surveillance traditionally provides information on location of populations with contagious, infected individuals since infectious poliovirus is excreted whether infections are asymptomatic or symptomatic. Here, we describe development of rapid (1 week turnaround time, TAT), quantitative RT-PCR of poliovirus RNA extracted directly from concentrated environmental surveillance samples to infer the number of infected individuals excreting poliovirus. The quantitation method was validated using data from vaccination with bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV). The method was then applied to infer the weekly number of excreters in a large, sustained, asymptomatic outbreak of wild type 1 poliovirus in Israel (2013) in a population where >90% of the individuals received three doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Evidence-based intervention strategies were based on the short TAT for direct quantitative detection. Furthermore, a TAT shorter than the duration of poliovirus excretion allowed resampling of infected individuals. Finally, the method documented absence of infections after successful intervention of the asymptomatic outbreak. The methodologies described here can be applied to outbreaks of other excreted viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), where there are (1) significant numbers of asymptomatic infections; (2) long incubation times during which infectious virus is excreted; and (3) limited resources, facilities, and manpower that restrict the number of individuals who can be tested and re-tested.